Democrat James Talarico has won the Texas U.S. Senate race, defeating Republican Ken Paxton, the Associated Press called late Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The AP called the race at approximately 10:04 p.m., with Talarico leading with 59.4% of the vote, Houston Public Media reported. Talarico is the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas since 1994 and the first Democrat elected to a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1988, according to KCRA, citing AP.

Results remain unofficial until certified by the Texas Secretary of State.

Montgomery County stayed red, but shifted

Paxton carried Montgomery County in early and absentee voting, taking 59.92% to Talarico's 38.82%, according to Woodlands Online. That was not enough to overcome Talarico's statewide margins in urban and suburban counties.

The county's Republican lean narrowed. Montgomery County gave President Donald Trump a margin of R+45.5 in the 2024 presidential race, the largest raw-vote margin of any U.S. county that year, the Texas Tribune reported. In partial Senate returns, that gap shrank to R+21.1, according to election-night tracking data. Those figures compare a partial 2026 count with a full 2024 count, so the final swing could still change.

Even fundraising reflected the shift. A Newsweek analysis of third-quarter Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings found Talarico raised $220,000 in Montgomery County, compared with $162,000 for Paxton.

What's at stake

The race could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the final two years of Trump's term. Republicans held a 53-47 advantage going into the election, according to Fox 4. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.

More than $570 million in political advertising made this the most expensive Senate race in American history, according to the Dallas Morning News, citing ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Record turnout statewide

More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, in person or by mail, through the state's 12-day early voting period, the Texas Tribune reported. That amounted to 40.5% of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern-day Texas. The Houston Chronicle reported voters lined up at the Kevin Brady Library and Community Center in The Woodlands on Oct. 28 as Harris County broke its midterm early-voting record.

Texas entered the election with more than 19 million registered voters, a new state record, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

The candidates

Paxton, the three-term state attorney general, defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a May 2026 Republican primary runoff after receiving an endorsement from Trump. He has served as attorney general since 2015. The Republican-led Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023 on allegations including bribery and misuse of office. The Texas Senate acquitted him on all 16 articles, Houston Public Media reported.

Talarico, a four-term state representative from the Austin area, is a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian. He led Paxton by a wide margin in fundraising for most of the year, though conservative super PACs offset that advantage with heavy spending in the campaign's final months, Houston Public Media reported.

Libertarian Ted Brown and several write-in candidates also appeared on the ballot.

Official results from the Texas Secretary of State will continue to be updated as counties report.